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MARCH 13,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE:

LAMB CLAIMS VICTORY – FROM THE HILL:  CANONSBURG, PA — Democrat Conor Lamb declared victory early Wednesday morning in his razor-tight bid for a Pittsburgh-area House special election, although the race hasn't yet been called.  The seat, which voted for President Trump in 2016 by a 20-point margin, was once considered an easy win for Republicans. But Lamb currently leads Republican state Rep. Rick Saccone by 579 ballots, with some absentee ballots outstanding.   "It took a little longer than we thought, but we did it. You did it," Lamb told supporters at his election night party shortly before 1 a.m.,  after he was introduced as "congressman-elect."  "We followed what I learned in the Marines — leave no one behind. We went everywhere, we talked to everyone, we invited everyone in."   He ran as a pro-gun, I'm not Nancy Pelosi, Democrat.  Let's see if he can hold on to that identity.

A BRIGHT SPOT FOR CAMPUS CONSERVATIVES – FROM COLLEGE FIX:  A University of Colorado Boulder program that brings a token conservative scholar to campus each year is expanding, with organizers citing its popularity with both right- and left-leaning students and well-respected scholars as big reasons for its growth.  For the past five years, the public university’s Conservative Thought and Policy Program has brought one visiting scholar to campus each year. For the 2018-19 school year, it will grow to include two scholars.  The growth stems from an increase in the amount of strong candidates applying for the position, the program’s strong financial footing, and its popularity and success so far, CU Boulder professor Robert Pasnau told The College Fix.   That's terrific.  A conservative program done right.  It should be expanded to other campuses.

March 13,   2018       Permalink

PENNSYLVANIA  – AT 11:45 P.M. ET:  We are obviously following very closely the race in the 18th C.D. in western Pennsylvania. 

With 99% of the ballots counted, Democrat Conor Lamb leads Republican Rick Saccone by four tenths of one percentage point. Almost a dead heat.

Absentee ballots may well decide the race.   Looking at what is still out, we'd have to come to the conclusion that Conor Lamb will probably squeeze through to a very narrow victory.  I was just surfing the news services, and that seems to be the conventional view. 

Donald Trump carried the district by about 20 points in 2016, so it was widely expected in some circles that Republican Saccone would coast to a comfortable victory.  But wait a minute.  Not so fast.  The 18th is actually a Democratic district, but made up heavily of Reagan Democrats, the kind who've believed, over the years, that the national Democratic Party has abandoned them.  They like Trump and favor his policies.

But the GOP put up the lackluster Saccone, who is kind of an old-fashioned Republican with little popular appeal.  His magnetism might be able to pick up a hairpin, but little else. By contrast, the Dems ran a young, dynamic, pro-gun, anti-Pelosi military veteran who often sounded more Republican than Democrat.  Lamb didn't even acknowledge the national party.  He also had union support, which was crucial.  He connected with the unions, which were once the backbone of the Democratic Party. 

So I wouldn't read too much into this, except that the result is a reminder of how tough it will be for the GOP to retain control of the House this November.  The party that does not control the presidency normally makes gains in the first midyear election following the election of the president.   And the media will be the Democrats' cheerleading squad.

March 13,  2018     Permalink     

THE LEVEL OF OUR POLITICS – AT 11:53 A.M. ET:  Just read this.  For some Americans, this is a legitimate political discussion.  From bizpacreview: 

Van Jones, the once self-avowed communist, begged Oprah Winfrey to help him deal with President Donald Trump.

Literally begged.

Oprah, who is playing coy about a possible presidential run, continues to play hard to get, but that didn’t stop Jones from gushing all over her in his new Sunday night show on CNN as he whined about how bad things are under President Trump.

“We had you. We had the Obamas in the White House. Even on a bad day, you had a North Star,” he told his guest. “You had some hope. And then it was like the universe looked just said, ‘Psych!,’ and threw us in the toilet and closed the lid and now we’re just stuck in this crazy situation, swirling.”

“We have each other,” Winfrey reassured the liberal host, saying everybody is feeding on the “hysteria and negativity.”

“You got to stay in the light,” she said in her best Obama-like presidential posture.

“Do not give your energy to the other side,” Oprah counseled Jones while channeling her inner Zen.

“Do not spend all your time talking about your opponents. Do not give your energy to that which you really don’t believe in.”

“But help us, though!” Jones begged.

He rambled on about how progressives are  saying “we’re getting bullied” by “Nazis” and “bigots” and “we’re tired of taking the high road.”

Yes, Jones said this with a straight face.

COMMENT:  That is on the intellectual level of an early adolescent.  And maybe we're looking at the future of the Democratic Party, once the party of Roosevelt, Truman, and Kennedy. 

March 13, 2018       Permalink

MAJOR NEWS – TILLERSON OUT – AT 9:41 A.M. ET:  President Trump has discharged (read fired, decapitated, shafted) Rex Tillerson as secretary of state and replaced him with CIA Director Mike Pompeo, the appointment subject to Senate confirmation.

The president, speaking with reporters a short time ago, was forthright in saying there were simply areas of disagreement between him and Tillerson.  Nothing personal, as they say.  There is no reason to doubt the president's words.  We've been hearing this for months.

Nor is it uncommon for presidents to wish to make changes in their initial Cabinets and in high White House positions.  Often, a new president doesn't actually know his appointees personally, but knows of them by reputation and recommendation. 

Mike Pompeo is an outstanding choice for State.  He graduated first in his class in 1986 from the United States Military Academy at West Point, and later graduated from the Harvard Law School, where he was an editor of the Law Review.  He is considered an intellectual heavyweight.  As a Republican congressman from Kansas, the post he held before becoming CIA director, he was a GOP spokesman on foreign- and defense policy.

Replacing Pompeo as head of the CIA, will be, subject to Senate Confirmation, Deputy Director Gina Haspel.  She will, if confirmed, be the first woman to hold the job.  Her confirmation may be difficult, or at least controversial.  As a CIA operative, she was involved in "enhanced interrogation techniques," which some consider torture.  CBS reports that she "ran a CIA prison in Thailand where terror suspects were waterboarded — a harsh interrogation technique President Donald Trump has supported."

On the other hand, she is considered an outstanding intelligence officer.  From her official CIA public resumé:  "Ms. Haspel is a career intelligence officer, having joined the CIA in 1985. She has extensive overseas experience and served as Chief of Station in several of her assignments. In Washington, she has held numerous senior leadership positions, including as Deputy Director of the National Clandestine Service, Deputy Director of the National Clandestine Service for Foreign Intelligence and Covert Action, and Chief of Staff for the Director of the National Clandestine Service.

"Ms. Haspel is the recipient of numerous awards including the George H. W. Bush Award for excellence in counterterrorism; the Donovan Award; the Intelligence Medal of Merit; and the Presidential Rank Award, the most prestigious award in the federal civil service."

We'll have more on these developments as facts come out.  And don't be shocked if this series of changes expands to include others in the administration.

March 13,  2018     Permalink

MARCH 12,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

WHAT DID YOU SAY, HILLARY? – FROM NTK:  Hillary Clinton said that white women voted for President Trump during the 2016 presidential election because their husbands told them to, during a discussion at the India Today Conclave on Saturday.  The moderator asked Clinton why she thinks almost 52 percent of white women voted for Trump, despite them knowing about the controversial “Access Hollywood” tape.  “[Democrats] do not do well with white men and we don’t do well with married, white women,” Clinton explained. “And part of that is an identification with the Republican Party, and a sort of ongoing pressure to vote the way that your husband, your boss, your son, whoever, believes you should.”  How incredibly condescending.  There are reasons she never became president.

NOT EXACTLY AN ACE TRAVEL AGENT – FROM PJ MEDIA:   At South by Southwest, SpaceX Founder and CEO Elon Musk projected that his first Mars spaceship will be ready for short trips by the first half of next year. He did warn, however, that the first travelers to Mars would likely perish.  "For the early people that go to Mars, it will be far more dangerous," Musk told HLN on Monday. "I mean, really, it kind of reads like Shackleton's ad for Antarctica explorers: It's difficult, dangerous, good chance you'll die, excitement for those who survive."   I think I'd prefer to go to Virginia.

THE NEW RELIGION – FROM FOX:   A religious studies major was barred from Christianity class at Indiana University of Pennsylvania for saying during class that there are only two genders.  Lake Ingle, a senior at the university, said he was silenced and punished by IUP Professor Alison Downie for questioning her during a Feb. 28 “Christianity 481: Self, Sin, and Salvation” lecture.  After showing a 15-minute TED Talk by transgender ex-pastor Paula Stone Williams discussing the “reality” of “mansplaining,” “sexism from men,” and “male privilege,” the professor asked the women in the class to share their thoughts. When no women in the class said anything, Ingle spoke up, challenging the professor on biology and the gender wage gap.  The professor clearly needs to work elsewhere.

March 12, 2018       Permalink

ANOTHER "BELIEVE THE CHILDREN" MOMENT – AT 3:40 P.M. ET:  Oh, I'm so tired of this stuff.  Believe the children.  The youth of America is speaking.  Speak truth to power.  We've heard it all, and it must be said that rarely have "student movements" ended well.  Ask yourself how much experience and wisdom you had at 17 or 18.

But now Harvard has gotten into the act, and students from that tragic school in Florida where the recent shooting occurred, will play the part of the useful idiots.  From College Fix:   

Some of the more vocal students from the site of the Parkland, Florida shootings are headed to Harvard University on March 20.

According to The Harvard Crimson, the high school activists will be part of an Institute of Politics panel titled “#NEVERAGAIN: How Parkland Students are Changing the Conversation on Guns,” and will feature students David Hogg, Cameron Kasky and Emma González.

Dustin Chiang, president of the IOP Student Advisory Committee, said in an email “These students have rapidly organized a nationwide movement and are currently at the center of our country’s political discourse. We are eager to hear their insight on how young people can make a difference on issues they believe in.”

Panel moderator Meighan Stone, a senior fellow at the Kennedy School’s Women and Foreign Policy program, compared the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School survivors to Pakistani activist Malala and US Representative John Lewis:

“The Parkland students have refused to be silent victims, instead realizing they need no one’s permission to be a prophetic voice for change and an end to gun violence in America."

COMMENT:  These children, and that's what they are properly called, are being exploited by the political left.  Reducing gun violence is a serious issue requiring experience and study. Being present at a horrible shooting makes you no more an expert on guns than a robbery victim is an expert on property crime.

I guess the Florida kids are being invited to draw press attention.   Get those press clippings!  Great for a professor's resumé.

March 12, 2018       Permalink

THERE'S AN ELECTION IN RUSSSIA? – AT 2:20 P.M. ET:  Yeah, they have this strange kind of election.  And guess who the winner is likely to be?  From AFP:  

Moscow (AFP) - Vladimir Putin will return to the Kremlin with 69 percent of the vote, according to the last survey by state pollsters before the Russian presidential election on Sunday.

The figure has dipped from highs of 77 percent shortly after Putin announced his candidacy in December, but there is little doubt he will win in a landslide even after a lacklustre campaign.

"There are several reasons why Putin has such a high rating. There are of course his personal qualities. He is the most trusted (candidate)," head of state pollster VTsIOM Valeriy Fyodorov told a press conference on Monday.

Around 90 percent of people who were aware of Putin's programme said they supported it, Fyodorov said.

Putin has not produced an official programme but he discussed poverty and environmental issues during a state of the nation address this month.

He has refused to take part in televised debates with his seven challengers and his campaign videos have relied solely on archive materials.

Pavel Grudinin, the millionaire Communist Party candidate, is expected to come in second with around seven or eight percent of the vote, according to VTsIOM figures.

COMMENT:  So Vlad gets 69 percent and the guy coming in second gets 7 or 8 percent.  I'm sure it will be an open and honest election, based on the democratically proven Chicago model.

And then of course there's the issue of whether Trump colluded with Putin to give Putin a great victory.  No, I'm just kidding.

March 12, 2018       Permalink 

TOMORROW – AT 11:32 A.M. ET:  There's a major election tomorrow in Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District, to replace a disgraced congressman.  Republican Congressman Tim Murphy resigned late last year after admitting, not only to an extra-marital affair, but to having asked his partner to have an abortion, despite his being publicly pro-life.  What a guy!  The candidates running are Republican Rick Saccone, a lackluster candidate who death will not be marked by any noticeable change in his personality, and Conor Lamb, an attractive young Democrat and military veteran, who's been able to hide his decidedly liberal views.  From CNN: 

Former GOP Rep. Tim Murphy, who ran unopposed in both 2016 and 2014, won the district by 28 points in 2012. Republican President Donald Trump won it by about 20 percentage points, when he was losing the national popular vote by 2 points. It's a district that Republican Mitt Romney won by 17 points, when he was losing the national popular vote by 4 points.

In other words, the race shouldn't be close even if the national environment was neutral. Saccone should be winning by double digits.

Yet, the available polls show Lamb and Saccone neck-and-neck. An average of the three surveys, none of which meet CNN's polling standards, taken within three weeks of the election actually have Lamb up by a point. That means this race is a tossup given the true margin of error with 95% confidence for special House election polling averages (in which there is at least two polls part of the average) being about +/- 10 percentage points.

I'm amused by the term "CNN standards."  I wouldn't pay ten cents for those standards.

Now, any single special election can be a false positive (or false negative, depending on your angle). Eight years ago, Democrats won a closely watched special election in southwest Pennsylvania, but Republicans romped in the 2010 midterms. This year, most observers regard Lamb as a strong candidate, while Saccone is seen as a weak fundraiser. Additionally, the district is ancestrally Democratic, as seen through the 6-point Democratic advantage in party registration in the district. Party registration in the past has been crucial in explaining House results, even after controlling for the presidential lean of the district. 

COMMENT:  The district is typical of those that gave Trump his presidential victory.  It is filled with former Democrats, once part of a powerful labor movement, who saw their party betray them, even laugh at them, even call them deplorables. 

But Republicans have made the classic Republic mistake – putting up a weak candidate, and assuming victory.  Lamb, who clearly has inherited the CA gene – convenient amnesia – seems to have forgotten some of the radical stands he's taken in the past.  He is charming, and charm often overcomes all with some voters.

The president has visited to boost Saccone, and so have other major Republicans.  The national party has poured major resources into the race, hoping to avoid embarrassment.  But the fear is that we will have another Alabama, where a safe Republican seat was lost because of an inadequate candidate.

We'll know tomorrow night.  The press will make a very big deal out of a Republican defeat.

March 12,  2018     Permalink